Lancet Identifies 17 Major Threats To Global Health; India Faces All Of Them

A new report by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 major threats to global health and human survival, warning that decisions taken today could determine how much healthy life future generations lose to preventable illness, disability and premature death.

Published in The Lancet and launched at the World Health Summit in Berlin on October 11, 2026, the Commission’s assessment examines threats across 204 countries and territories. It draws on historical evidence and risk modelling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how different policy decisions could affect health outcomes between 2025 and 2100. The assessment identifies all 17 threats as relevant to global health, with each country facing significant risks.

What Are The 17 Threats To Global Health?

The Commission identified the following 17 threats as having the potential to cause catastrophic health losses by 2100:

• Air pollution
• Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)
• Childhood malnutrition
• Climate change
• Conventional conflict
• Declining development assistance for health
• High alcohol use
• High blood pressure
• Income inequality
• Low educational attainment
• Naturally occurring pandemics
• Obesity
• Poor mental health
• Smoking
• Unhealthy ageing
• Malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)
• Nuclear conflict

The Commission defines a catastrophic threat using three criteria: it could account for at least one billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, there is sufficient data to model it, and there is scope for policy intervention.

DALYs measure healthy years lost due to illness, disability or premature death. The Commission uses the measure to compare the potential health consequences of different threats and assess how much harm could be avoided through action.

Obesity Among The Largest Projected Health Burdens

Obesity is among the major threats identified by the Commission. Its modelling estimates that effective interventions could avert 23.1 billion DALYs associated with obesity by 2100.

Other threats include high blood pressure, smoking, antimicrobial resistance and poor mental health, alongside childhood malnutrition and unhealthy ageing. The inclusion of these conditions reflects the scale of their potential long-term health consequences and the scope for interventions to reduce them.

The Commission also identifies income inequality and low educational attainment as threats to health, underlining the importance of social and economic conditions in shaping health outcomes across populations.

Climate Change And Its Impact On Health

The Commission identifies climate change as a major threat that can cause direct health harms and intensify other risks. Its modelling estimates that limiting global warming to around 1.8°C, rather than allowing it to reach 4.4°C, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost to direct effects, including extreme heat and air pollution.

The Commission cautions that this estimate captures direct harms that can currently be measured and excludes harder-to-quantify effects, including displacement, drought and mental health impacts. The actual health burden could therefore be greater.

Naturally occurring pandemics are also included among the 17 threats. The Commission’s assessment considers both the potential health impact of future pandemics and the role that preparedness and intervention could play in reducing losses.

AI And Nuclear Conflict Identified As Threats With Extinction Potential

The Commission identifies the malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear conflict as two threats with the potential to threaten human survival.

Although the likelihood of these events remains uncertain, the consequences could be catastrophic if they occur. The assessment includes these risks because of their potential scale and the possibility of taking action to reduce them.

The Commission estimates that action to prevent nuclear conflict could avert 133 million deaths and 9.35 billion DALYs by 2100. Measures to reduce the risk of malicious AI use could avert an estimated 10.4 billion DALYs.

These figures are modelled estimates of potentially avoidable losses, not predictions that the deaths or health losses will necessarily occur. The Commission notes that estimates for threats such as nuclear conflict and malicious AI carry greater uncertainty because historical data are limited.

Commission Calls For Greater Preparedness And Investment

The Commission recommends three broad measures to address the identified threats: building health systems equipped for prevention and preparedness, accelerating investment in innovation, and strengthening the monitoring and assessment of emerging risks.

The recommendations include increasing investment in vaccines, antibiotics, obesity treatments and climate technologies, alongside improving access to effective interventions. The Commission also calls for threats to be reassessed regularly and independently so that evidence can keep pace with changing risks.

Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and co-chair of the Commission, said the findings demonstrate that decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of future generations. He also emphasised that the threats are interconnected and should be addressed collectively rather than in isolation.

For India, the findings place existing public health challenges alongside longer-term risks involving climate change, conflict and emerging technologies. The Commission’s framework calls for coordinated action across health, finance, education, climate, defence and technology, with the aim of reducing preventable health losses over the coming decades.

 

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Stressed Pregnancy Might Hinder Infants’ Brain Development

While stress is at no time considered healthy, maternal stress during or even before pregnancy can affect the infant’s brain development, found a new study. The study looked at the relationship between maternal stress and brain development in 251 premature kids. Researchers found evidence for the impaired development of a white matter tract, the uncinate fasciculus, in babies whose mothers experience more stress in the prenatal period. These findings were published in the Journal Biological Psychiatry.

The mothers completed a questionnaire that asked them about their experiences of stressful events, ranging from everyday stress such as moving house or taking an exam to more severe stressors like experiencing bereavement, separation or divorce.

A score of severity of stress was calculated based on how many stressors they experienced as well as how severe those stressors were. This is what was related to the baby’s brain.
Researchers used a medical imaging technique called diffusion tensor imaging that was specifically developed to look at the structure of the white matter, which has previously been implicated in anxiety disorders – adults that have an anxiety disorder may show changes in the tract.

We found that in the mums that were more stressed during pregnancy and the period before birth, white matter was altered in the babies, said lead researcher.

Clinicians have an important role to play when speaking with expectant mothers. While questions are asked about depressive symptoms, few questions are asked about general stress and anxiety. Women who deal with stressful life events during pregnancy are not picked up by their GPs or by their health care providers very often.

It is not diagnosed as often as it should be during pregnancy and we are trying to emphasise that maternal mental health during pregnancy can impact the baby’s brain development which may impact on their outcomes later in life, researcher added.
Antenatal services need to be aware that it is important to think about stress of the mums and we need to have some kind of support there for the mums who identify that they are stressed, the researcher opined.

There is some evidence to suggest that if mothers experience poor mental health during pregnancy that leads to adverse outcomes in the baby – obstetric outcomes, lower birth weight or premature birth.
A mother’s poor mental health may also lead to altered early behavior such as more frequent crying.

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