Lancet Identifies 17 Major Threats To Global Health; India Faces All Of Them
A new report by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 major threats to global health and human survival, warning that decisions taken today could determine how much healthy life future generations lose to preventable illness, disability and premature death.
Published in The Lancet and launched at the World Health Summit in Berlin on October 11, 2026, the Commission’s assessment examines threats across 204 countries and territories. It draws on historical evidence and risk modelling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how different policy decisions could affect health outcomes between 2025 and 2100. The assessment identifies all 17 threats as relevant to global health, with each country facing significant risks.
What Are The 17 Threats To Global Health?
The Commission identified the following 17 threats as having the potential to cause catastrophic health losses by 2100:
- Air pollution
- Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)
- Childhood malnutrition
- Climate change
- Conventional conflict
- Declining development assistance for health
- High alcohol use
- High blood pressure
- Income inequality
- Low educational attainment
- Naturally occurring pandemics
- Obesity
- Poor mental health
- Smoking
- Unhealthy ageing
- Malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)
- Nuclear conflict
The Commission defines a catastrophic threat using three criteria: it could account for at least one billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, there is sufficient data to model it, and there is scope for policy intervention.
DALYs measure healthy years lost due to illness, disability or premature death. The Commission uses the measure to compare the potential health consequences of different threats and assess how much harm could be avoided through action.
Obesity Among The Largest Projected Health Burdens
Obesity is among the major threats identified by the Commission. Its modelling estimates that effective interventions could avert 23.1 billion DALYs associated with obesity by 2100.
Other threats include high blood pressure, smoking, antimicrobial resistance and poor mental health, alongside childhood malnutrition and unhealthy ageing. The inclusion of these conditions reflects the scale of their potential long-term health consequences and the scope for interventions to reduce them.
The Commission also identifies income inequality and low educational attainment as threats to health, underlining the importance of social and economic conditions in shaping health outcomes across populations.
Climate Change And Its Impact On Health
The Commission identifies climate change as a major threat that can cause direct health harms and intensify other risks. Its modelling estimates that limiting global warming to around 1.8°C, rather than allowing it to reach 4.4°C, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost to direct effects, including extreme heat and air pollution.