While the predictions aren't completely
certain, they offer a general idea of the disease's progression over
five years. Currently, a prototype app is being used for research
purposes, with plans to develop a more user-friendly version involving
input from patients, families, and healthcare providers.
Cognitive decline happens at different
rates for everyone, and many people want to know what to expect for
themselves or their family members. This means there's a real need for
improved prediction models, says Pieter J. van der Veere, M.D., from
Amsterdam University Medical Center, Netherlands.
This research is published in the journal Neurology. It also explored
the potential of new drugs to lessen the decline in patients with the
disease.
How researchers developed the model
The researchers developed models to
estimate how quickly people's scores on thinking and memory tests would
decrease over time. They then compared these predictions with actual
test results from participants. The study involved 961 individuals with
an average age of 65; 310 had mild cognitive impairment, while 651 had
mild dementia. All participants had amyloid-beta plaques in their
brains, which are early indicators of Alzheimer's disease and are the
focus of new medications.
The cognitive test scores range from zero to 30. A score of 25 or higher
suggests no dementia, 21 to 24 indicates mild dementia, 10 to 20
represents moderate dementia, and scores below 10 suggest severe
dementia.
After five years, people with mild cognitive impairment showed a drop in
their test scores from 26.4 at the beginning of the study to 21.0 at
the end. Those with mild dementia had their scores decrease from 22.4 to
7.8 over the same period.
While the models were useful for predicting cognitive decline, they also
highlighted some uncertainty, according to van der Veere. In half of
the cases involving mild cognitive impairment, the actual scores were
within two points of the predicted scores. For those with mild dementia,
the scores were within three points of the prediction for half of the
participants.
The researchers found that a person with
mild cognitive impairment, who had a test score of 28 and a specific
level of amyloid plaques, would be expected to progress to moderate
dementia (score of 20) in six years. If a treatment reduces the decline
by 30%, this person would take 8.6 years to reach moderate dementia.
Meanwhile, for someone with mild dementia starting at a score of 21,
reaching a score of 15 was predicted to take 2.3 years, extending to 3.3
years if the decline was reduced by 30%.
Cognitive decline happens at different rates for everyone, and many
people want to know what to expect for themselves or their family
members. This means there's a real need for improved prediction models,
according to Van der Veere.
One limitation of the study was that the
cognitive tests were not always conducted at the same time of day.
People with cognitive decline may score lower later in the day when they
feel more fatigued.
Providing patients with an app that helps them customize treatments and
forecasts
The researchers have not only created the
predictive model but also designed a prototype app for clinicians,
according to the study's authors.
The tool, which is currently being developed, includes a communication
sheet explaining the predictions for clinicians to share with patients
and caregivers. Additionally, the app provides information for patients
about the disease, diagnosis, and prognosis.
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