When Will Coronavirus End—And When Will it Peak in the US?
As the world continues to grapple with the harsh reality of the coronavirus pandemic, daily life has drastically changed for most (if not all) citizens: Entire countries and cities have been locked down; social distancing, self-isolation, and self-quarantine is being enforced; and even major events and public areas have been completely cancelled and closed.
It's a frightening situation, and everyone's wondering the same thing right now: When will the coronavirus pandemic end?
The short, uncomplicated answer: No one knows for sure, and no one will be able to answer that definitively right now, nor in the foreseeable future. That information is totally dependent on the coronavirus outbreak itself, and when cases of COVID-19 officially peak. "How long the COVID-19 crisis continues is contingent on when we hit the apex, when we’re able to flatten the curve and then when it begins to recede,” Gary W. Procop, MD, chair of the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP)’s Commission on Science, Technology and Policy and vice chair and director of virology at Cleveland Clinic, tells Health.
While some have been looking at previous pandemics—like the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, and the SARS outbreak of 2003—to try to figure out when the current coronavirus pandemic may subside, even those aren't perfect correlations, due to different viruses and less-advanced medical technology and treatments.
Still, the similarities between SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and COVID-19 are there: Both are coronaviruses and have similar DNA, Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, infectious diseases researcher at Expert Stewardship, Inc., and Infectious Diseases Society of American expert tells Health. They also have the same main transmission route of respiratory droplets and similar incubation periods. But with the SARS outbreak in 2003, only 8,098 people worldwide fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and just 774 people died over the course of eight months. COVID-19, on the other hand, has already exceeded 800,000 cases and there have been more than 35,000 deaths worldwide just over three months since the outbreak began.
Dr. Kullar says that the flu of 1918 pandemic may suggest a more similar pattern to to COVID-19, but even that's not an exact comparison. "I think what you can see with the [so-called Spanish] flu is a very similar pattern in terms of how many people it impacted, how many people it killed, and how social distancing measures were not put into place quickly enough," says Dr. Kullar. For reference, the CDC says that an estimated 50 million people worldwide died during the 1918 flu pandemic, with about 675,000 of those deaths occurring in the US. The 1918 flu pandemic reportedly began in March 1918 and, after multiple waves of the virus, began to subside in the US around February 1919, per the CDC.
Because it's difficult to determine when COVID-19 will end based on the trajectories of other pandemics, some experts suggest a better question than "when will the coronavirus end?" is instead "when will the coronavirus peak?" While nothing is definite, there may be a bit more current information to back up these projections.
Dr. Kullar points to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a population health research center at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The group of statisticians, computer scientists, and epidemiologists have been tracking and forecasting COVID-19 in the US since February. The IHME's current projections—which are again, just estimates based on current social distancing practices and business closures, and rely on on the maintenance of those practices—suggest that the coronavirus will peak in mid-late April, with April 15 being the estimated peak day for hospital use and deaths in the US. Of course, that's an extremely specific date, and most experts decline to put a concrete number on the virus' peak.
Dr. Kullar echoes that these projections are just that, and they depend on the US keeping up with current (or even improving upon) restrictions. "[It's] considering that there's a continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures that have been put into place," she says. It's also important to remember that this predicted peak is for the general US—different states may peak and level off at different rates.
Aside from the projections by the IHME, it's also helpful to look at the trajectory of COVID-19 in other countries that dealt with the disease before the US had to. "I think we can learn from China in terms of how they implemented physical distancing measures as quickly as they could, and now they're seeing very minimal cases," says Dr. Kullar. In an interview with CNBC, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, MD, shared that what's happened in other parts of the world could suggest what will happen in the US. "If you look at other countries, the time between the implementation of the most restrictive measures, like lockdown and significant social distancing, to when they hit their peak in the epidemic, it’s anywhere from four to six weeks,” Dr. Gottlieb said.
Something to keep in mind, however, is that even after the coronavirus peaks and subsides in the US, another wave may hit. "The virus will still be here when things start opening up again; it happens in waves," says Dr. Kullar, adding that if the US begins opening everything up again immediately after the peak, "it can put us in another bad situation." Stefan Flasche, MD, a disease modeler at The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine echoed this in an interview with CNN. "One scenario is we can indeed reverse the spread as done in China and South Korea, then reach a point to lift the distancing measures," Dr. Flasche told CNN. "But (we may) have to repeat this cycle for a few times because of an inevitable resurgence of cases in the absence of population immunity. In that scenario, we would see multiple peaks in the upcoming 12 months."
What experts agree on—unanimously—is that in order to get through the COVID-19 crisis faster, the public has to comply with all social distancing and stay-at-home recommendations.
It’s also crucial that accessibility to testing for people with significant risk factors is increased, Dr. Procop tells Health. “We must expand the ability of local lab professionals to carry out the testing,” he says. “Importantly, individuals who have upper respiratory tract infections who either do not have access to testing or do not meet the criteria for testing should self-quarantine to limit spread to others. In any of these scenarios, we are looking at several weeks—at the earliest—to hit the surge and hopefully begin resolution.”
The information in this story is accurate as of press time. However, as the situation surrounding COVID-19 continues to evolve, it's possible that some data have changed since publication. While Health is trying to keep our stories as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDC, WHO, and their local public health department as resources.
It's a frightening situation, and everyone's wondering the same thing right now: When will the coronavirus pandemic end?
The short, uncomplicated answer: No one knows for sure, and no one will be able to answer that definitively right now, nor in the foreseeable future. That information is totally dependent on the coronavirus outbreak itself, and when cases of COVID-19 officially peak. "How long the COVID-19 crisis continues is contingent on when we hit the apex, when we’re able to flatten the curve and then when it begins to recede,” Gary W. Procop, MD, chair of the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP)’s Commission on Science, Technology and Policy and vice chair and director of virology at Cleveland Clinic, tells Health.
While some have been looking at previous pandemics—like the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, and the SARS outbreak of 2003—to try to figure out when the current coronavirus pandemic may subside, even those aren't perfect correlations, due to different viruses and less-advanced medical technology and treatments.
Still, the similarities between SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and COVID-19 are there: Both are coronaviruses and have similar DNA, Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, infectious diseases researcher at Expert Stewardship, Inc., and Infectious Diseases Society of American expert tells Health. They also have the same main transmission route of respiratory droplets and similar incubation periods. But with the SARS outbreak in 2003, only 8,098 people worldwide fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and just 774 people died over the course of eight months. COVID-19, on the other hand, has already exceeded 800,000 cases and there have been more than 35,000 deaths worldwide just over three months since the outbreak began.
Dr. Kullar says that the flu of 1918 pandemic may suggest a more similar pattern to to COVID-19, but even that's not an exact comparison. "I think what you can see with the [so-called Spanish] flu is a very similar pattern in terms of how many people it impacted, how many people it killed, and how social distancing measures were not put into place quickly enough," says Dr. Kullar. For reference, the CDC says that an estimated 50 million people worldwide died during the 1918 flu pandemic, with about 675,000 of those deaths occurring in the US. The 1918 flu pandemic reportedly began in March 1918 and, after multiple waves of the virus, began to subside in the US around February 1919, per the CDC.
Because it's difficult to determine when COVID-19 will end based on the trajectories of other pandemics, some experts suggest a better question than "when will the coronavirus end?" is instead "when will the coronavirus peak?" While nothing is definite, there may be a bit more current information to back up these projections.
Dr. Kullar points to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a population health research center at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The group of statisticians, computer scientists, and epidemiologists have been tracking and forecasting COVID-19 in the US since February. The IHME's current projections—which are again, just estimates based on current social distancing practices and business closures, and rely on on the maintenance of those practices—suggest that the coronavirus will peak in mid-late April, with April 15 being the estimated peak day for hospital use and deaths in the US. Of course, that's an extremely specific date, and most experts decline to put a concrete number on the virus' peak.
Dr. Kullar echoes that these projections are just that, and they depend on the US keeping up with current (or even improving upon) restrictions. "[It's] considering that there's a continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures that have been put into place," she says. It's also important to remember that this predicted peak is for the general US—different states may peak and level off at different rates.
Aside from the projections by the IHME, it's also helpful to look at the trajectory of COVID-19 in other countries that dealt with the disease before the US had to. "I think we can learn from China in terms of how they implemented physical distancing measures as quickly as they could, and now they're seeing very minimal cases," says Dr. Kullar. In an interview with CNBC, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, MD, shared that what's happened in other parts of the world could suggest what will happen in the US. "If you look at other countries, the time between the implementation of the most restrictive measures, like lockdown and significant social distancing, to when they hit their peak in the epidemic, it’s anywhere from four to six weeks,” Dr. Gottlieb said.
Something to keep in mind, however, is that even after the coronavirus peaks and subsides in the US, another wave may hit. "The virus will still be here when things start opening up again; it happens in waves," says Dr. Kullar, adding that if the US begins opening everything up again immediately after the peak, "it can put us in another bad situation." Stefan Flasche, MD, a disease modeler at The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine echoed this in an interview with CNN. "One scenario is we can indeed reverse the spread as done in China and South Korea, then reach a point to lift the distancing measures," Dr. Flasche told CNN. "But (we may) have to repeat this cycle for a few times because of an inevitable resurgence of cases in the absence of population immunity. In that scenario, we would see multiple peaks in the upcoming 12 months."
What experts agree on—unanimously—is that in order to get through the COVID-19 crisis faster, the public has to comply with all social distancing and stay-at-home recommendations.
It’s also crucial that accessibility to testing for people with significant risk factors is increased, Dr. Procop tells Health. “We must expand the ability of local lab professionals to carry out the testing,” he says. “Importantly, individuals who have upper respiratory tract infections who either do not have access to testing or do not meet the criteria for testing should self-quarantine to limit spread to others. In any of these scenarios, we are looking at several weeks—at the earliest—to hit the surge and hopefully begin resolution.”
The information in this story is accurate as of press time. However, as the situation surrounding COVID-19 continues to evolve, it's possible that some data have changed since publication. While Health is trying to keep our stories as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDC, WHO, and their local public health department as resources.
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